JCPOA’s prospects under Trump

The business mogul made controversial remarks during his presidential campaign.

The English language newspaper, Iran Daily, in its Wednesday edition in an article written by Hossein Mousavi wrote that Trump pledged to build a southern border wall between the US and Mexico, tear up the Iran nuclear deal, ban Muslims from entering the US, and alter Washington’s interventionist policy in the Middle East.

Analysts are waiting to see whether Trump would scrap the Iran nuclear accord dubbed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), throw a monkey wrench into its implementation, or comply with it.

Trump’s attitude toward the agreement can be studied from several angles.

First, the new US president cannot scrap the JCPOA although he will have considerable authority after taking office. This is because the agreement was not a bilateral accord. It was a deal signed between Iran and world powers, including the US.

Secondly, the Trump administration will make attempts to impose new penalties on Iran like the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA). Such measures will be taken to adversely affect the JCPOA. The business tycoon may resort to new sanctions against Iran rather than scrap the nuclear deal.

However, his administration will be faced with serious challenges.

This is because the White House will need excuses to impose fresh anti-Tehran sanctions.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that the Islamic Republic has complied with its commitments under the JCPOA. Iran’s nuclear activities are monitored by the agency.

Hence, if Washington wants to impose sanctions on Iran - in violation of the nuclear deal - it will get involved in a confrontation with the IAEA, the P5+1 and the European Union.

The EU is currently at odds with Trump over his stances about the bloc. Fresh anti-Iran measures could deepen gaps between the White House and the European Union.

Third, if the above-mentioned reasons will make it difficult for the Trump administration to press ahead with anti-JCPOA measures, will he remain silent with regard to the deal?

Trump has slammed US policies under the Obama administration including the Iran nuclear deal. Hence, it is unlikely that he will keep mum.

The US has adopted a hostile approach toward Iran since the establishment of the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Tehran’s policy against Israel’s occupation of Palestinian land and its support for Islamic resistance groups remain as a bone of contention.

Trump will use such heated disagreements to fuel tensions between Washington and Tehran in a bid to weaken the JCPOA.

9060**1771